Here is a map that shows which states will have abortion on the ballot in November. Among other states, the list includes Florida, Nevada, Arizona, Missouri, South Dakota, and potentially Montana. All states that are reddish purple or all the way red. If the smart people should have learned anything since Roe was overturned it is that abortion on the ballot moves elections in Democrats favor. A corollary to this is that I don’t think pollsters have figured out how to adjust their methodology to accurately reflect this. With abortion on the ballot in these states, I’d suggest they are all battleground states this go-round and I don’t think the GOP is necessarily treating them that way. That may come back to haunt them.
Trump continues his deterioration and descent into anger and fear. It is an amazing thing to watch him speak these days. He is just filled with rage. That isn’t how people win elections in America. Particularly national elections where people still want to believe, want to hope, and want to dream of a better nation and better world. Trump only knows one way to do these things. To attack and attack some more. To spread fear and spread some more. What happened in 2016 worked because he was a fraction of what he is today and because Clinton was a worse candidate than he was. (Just in different ways.) All Trump knows to do now is to play to his base, to keep them fired up. He simply doesn’t know how to appeal to a broader cross-section of American voters. As a result, he is doing nothing to get more voters and even many of those who have supported him for the last eight years are finally abandoning him. He actually is narrowing his slice of the electorate at a time when candidates are typically trying to expand their slice.
Meanwhile, Harris is a happy warrior. I listened to some of her speech today while I was driving around. You can hear it in her voice. Joy. Happiness. A desire to help people and to do the right thing. She speaks of hopes and dreams and about a positive vision for the future. This is the kind of candidate that typically wins a national election in America, particularly if the opponent is as dark and angry as Trump is. I’ve written already about how Biden stepping down and Harris stepping in has completely changed the dynamic of the election. The Biden-Trump contest was one that thrilled no one. It was a death march. With the single, ego-defying step of withdrawing, Biden did more to advance the Democratic possibilities than anything else he could have done. The mood has completely changed both on the left and with moderates and independents who were looking desperately for a better choice. Suddenly there is a choice!! As long as Harris continues with a smile on her face and in her voice and speaking to the needs of America, this may just turn into a rout.
A few words of caution: It is still 2 1/2 months to the election. A lot can happen in that time. Harris needs to avoid veering too far to the left. She also needs to avoid too much mockery of MAGA world. Whether it is calling them weird or using social media to go too far. (Recently, they shared a video of Walz and Harris talking about white guy tacos. It pokes fun at Walz and his flavor free tacos. But … it is already being used on the right-wing to claim they’re racists because their projecting stereotypes of white people. Whether that works for anybody but the true red MAGAs is something to see. What I see is that MAGAs have become the biggest victims in the history of the world.)
Democrats have to be careful about their convention. To not go overboard and try to figure out a way to rein in some of their more extreme elements. And they also need to hope that campus protests and other areas for potential violence do not crop up again (or get worse) in the next few months.
Finally, one of the things I’ve begun to worry about is whether Trump allies in states and local governments will put their thumbs on the scale in the days after the election, but I have a hope that won’t actually happen. That when it comes time to do the right thing, they will.
Feeling similar myself Mark. Thanks for this.
I'm trying not to go overboard with optimism because God knows anything can happen, but it sure does feel different all of a sudden. 👊