Two Weeks To Go

I don’t feel like the dynamics of the race have changed for weeks, or even since Harris took Biden’s place. But I have some thoughts.

Democrats are giddy over all of the early voting that’s being done. But they shouldn’t be. This isn’t 2020 when Republicans, particularly Trump, actively discouraged their voters from voting early. I’m going to guess that the number of Republicans voting early this year is higher than last year. The early votes will not be as favorable for Democrats as it was in 2020.

That said, the quantity of early votes bodes well for this being another big turnout election. And there is only one candidate big turnout will help — Kamala Harris. There is no way Trump will get more votes this year than he got in 2020. If he does, America is truly lost.

Every day, Trump says something that should be disqualifying. And no, I’m not going through the lengthy list of examples from the last few weeks. It’s exhausting to read all of the lunatic things he says and then realize that his base still loves him no matter what he says.

But that’s the thing. As I’ve said before, he is doing nothing to appeal beyond his base. He has turned away millions of moderate Republicans. Many of the policies he has proposed are anathema to independents. The only card he has is fear. Fear of crime. Fear of immigrants. Fear of the other.

His allies make clear that what he is really talking about is an America for white Christian America. When Elon Musk says that if Trump loses, it will be the end of Western Civilization, he is referring to white European civilization. When Vance attacks childless women, he is pushing a perspective that is found in the Christian nationalist churches of America. When Trump bashes immigrants, he only means immigrants with brown skin.

I just don’t see what he is doing and saying as turning the tide in his favor. His act has worn thin. I mean, seriously, how many times and for how many years can a candidate threaten the end of the world and still be heard or believed by a majority of the electorate? He’s a one trick pony and the trick has worn out its welcome.

Why then are the polls so close? Because the polls are screwed up and have been screwed up for years. These kinds of elections are impossible for pollsters to accurately poll. The “science” of polling requires them to make a lot of assumptions about turnout levels — not just overall turnout but turnout within the different demographic groups. Something changed over the last ten years or so and it has made the science of polling ever more a junk science.

I’m not going to predict anything here, not even a Harris win. But I remain confident that she will win. There remains a lot of buzz about her within the demographic groups that can push her over the top. She has checked a lot of boxes over the last couple of months, regardless of the criticism that has been leveled at her as she is held to a different standard than other candidates. And she hasn’t made any major mistakes or missteps.

Two weeks to go. Buckle up.